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Forum:2011 Pacific typhoon season/Songda
04W:SONGDA Tropical Depression 04W New storm out there. The next name is Songda, and it's also threatening the Philipines. It appears the party has officially begun. Ryan1000 20:46, May 20, 2011 (UTC) :Forecast brings it up to category 3 hurricane strength. Yqt1001 02:58, May 21, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Songda (Chedeng) Now named by JMA. I am struck by how far south this thing is! And, a cat 3 threatening the Philippines doesn't sit well with me. HurricaneFiona 19:40, May 21, 2011 (UTC) :Where is everybody? Until the EPac and Atlantic start up, could we at least pay attention here for some time? A cat. 3 landfall in the Philipines is a rare event so early in the season, and other than Nida, or a couple of other storms which brushed them at this time of year, this thing could be a very bad storm for them, possibly worse than Aere, which hit them just last week. I haven't seen the EPac show signs of producing their first storm yet, due to a la Nina start, but the La Nina will transition into El Nino by August/September, and I'm not entirely sure what that will mean, but the only people that have really been here so far are me, Fiona, and Yqt. Eric? YE? Darren? Astro? Anyone? It's like people only care about Atlantic and EPac storms from what i've seen... Ryan1000 21:50, May 21, 2011 (UTC) ::Models have Songda move away from the Philippines and stay out at sea. They also bring Songda at cat 4 strength in the next five days though. And yes, it is rather sad that most people only care about the EPac and ATL storms, the offseason is rather boring without many people and there have been some notable storms to track so far this year. I don't see why have a hobby (tracking storms) but only do it for a few months of the year when you can easily do it year round! Yqt1001 01:13, May 22, 2011 (UTC) :::According to WU, Sondga is foretasted to strike somewhere between the Philippines and Twain. Should be interesting, I hope everyone stays safe. BTW, Darren is retired, I believe. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] ::Well, Darren certainly did make his calls in the betting pools... However, I think that many people care largely about the Atlantic and EPac storms because the media usually pays attention to them more than the WPac/NIO/SHem basin storms. Songda will likely be named Chedeng soon, but it certainly is interesting to watch for the time being. Ryan1000 14:51, May 22, 2011 (UTC) :::And now it's Chedeng. It's certainly starting the party up here... Ryan1000 02:30, May 23, 2011 (UTC) Typhoon Songda Up to category 1 hurricane strength now. Now Typhoon Songda too (first of the year!). Yqt1001 17:11, May 24, 2011 (UTC) :And it's getting worse for the Philipines... This could be the first big storm of the NHem season. We should keep our eyes out, and the Philipines could be in for their second biggie in less than two weeks... Or not. It appears it may head nortward past the islands and then go for Japan. Either way, Songda bears watching. Ryan1000 20:48, May 24, 2011 (UTC) Major Typhoon Songda Uh oh. Things are getting worse by the minute... Songda is now the strongest NHem storm thus far in 2011. It's winds have rescently jumped to 120 mph and the pressure has plunged down to 945 milibars. It could easily become super typhoon Songda very soon, and even though the Philipines may get lucky, the Japan coastline needs to watch out. Songda could have winds of up to 100 miles an hour or higher by the time it reaches the southern coast of the country. Watch out, everyone. This thing could be bad! Ryan1000 20:02, May 25, 2011 (UTC) Catgory 5 Typhoon Songda :160mph winds now! Reminds me of Nida a lot. Yqt1001 13:26, May 26, 2011 (UTC) :One minuets sustained or 10 minute. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 14:01, May 26, 2011 (UTC) ::OMG, Cat 5 Super Typhoon... This is unusually strong for this early, even in the Western Pacific. I don't like this one bit. The Philipines may have gotten lucky, but I am still worried about a Japan landfall (like most of the models are predicting). HurricaneFiona 16:22, May 26, 2011 (UTC) :::In 10 minute winds, it's 120 mph but 1 minute winds are 160, a category 5 storm. It's the first official category 5 in 2011, but unlike most may storms like this one, it could be a serious threat to land. Japan hasn't seen a category 2 or 3 landfall this early since... A very long time ago. Not that it'll be that strong when it hits, but it's not a good thing to see. The last May cat. 5 was Nida of 2004, but Ramansun of 2008 came just short. Damn, this thing's looking really ugly. Ryan1000 ::::I go by 1 minute winds as it makes the storm seem more massive and scares people more. I must admit the storm is looking very impressive and far from ugly from the satellites. On the ground it could be another story, but most models agree that it will brush Japan as a TS just like Songda is doing right now to the Philippines. Yqt1001 19:27, May 26, 2011 (UTC) :::I like the NHC's 1-minute standards as well, because the JMA's 10-minute winds are not accurate. People don't want to see it with 120 mph by their standards and have it hit with 160 mph by NHC standards. The JMA, IMD, and the southern Hemisphere RSMC's do not use the saffir-simpson scale, so they might not be viewed as being so strong. It will probrably not be very strong when it hits the mainland coast of Japan, but the Riryoku Islands(particularly Okinawa), are not out of the woods yet. This storm could be very bad for them, but then again, a tropical storm doesn't exactly do nothing by WPac standards; Bilis(Florita) in 2006 was one of Taiwan's and China's worst TS's on record. There was a former Super Typhoon Bilis of 2000 that hit Taiwan and China as a category 5 storm, but it quickly dissipated inland, and caused mostly wind and surge damage. The 2006 Bilis caused catastrophic flash floods in Taiwan and China which killed 672 people and caused nearly 6.2 billion in damage. This storm may not be as destructive as Bilis was, but Japan and the Philipines still have to watch out. Ryan1000 20:08, May 26, 2011 (UTC) Major Typhoon Songda (Second time) And it's back to 150 mph now. It appears the Riryoku Islands are in for a big storm tomorrow, but mainland Japan probrably won't be hit as hard. Ryan1000 11:36, May 27, 2011 (UTC) :Well, Songda is now barely holding onto category 4 strength, with winds now at 135 mph and still decreasing. I'm thinking Songda may likely do something like Typhoon Man-Yi in July 2007, which killed several people and caused severe damage in the southernmost part of the Japanese island of Kyushu. Man-Yi was the strongest July typhoon to hit Japan on record, doing so with 110 mph winds, just short of a category 3. I'm thinking Songda will hit the same area Man-Yi did, but as a weak category 1 storm(and much earlier in the season), and will likely head out to sea after that. The only problem with this one is back in 2007, I don't think Japan had to worry about nuclear accidents, but with Songda they very well may. Ryan1000 01:47, May 28, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Songda (again) You can pretty much say goodbye to Songda now. 70mph winds. Yqt1001 21:02, May 28, 2011 (UTC) :I didn't expect Songda to weaken that fast... Now it's just gonna parallel southern Japan as a weak TS and head out to sea. This storm woke up the WPac rather fast. May cat. 5's are very rare in the WPac, and only happen once in a blue moon, even though there have been 3 since 2000, there haven't been a lot more than that since, say 1950. Ryan1000 21:13, May 28, 2011 (UTC) ::And it's gone. Songda just hit southern Japan as a TS and it quickly dissipated after its only landfall. The impacts from Songda weren't as bad as they could've been, but it certainly got the party started in this basin. The rest(and worst) of the season has yet to come. Ryan1000 18:00, May 29, 2011 (UTC)